Why forecast modelling in forest management is critical for our future
Author: Kelly Anderson
Posted on May 30, 2024
Category: Inspiring Stories , FOREM , UNB Fredericton
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It’s early on Monday morning in Victoria, British Columbia when Xin Yuan (MScF’12), manager of Forest Carbon and Climate Services for BC Public Service, gets serious.
“It’s getting real now. Climate change is affecting people’s lives, whether from wildfire evacuations, dangerous air quality from smoke, drought, floods, increasing temperatures, or forest insects affecting our forests. It’s not just something we have to think about for future generations, it’s something we need to tackle now.”
Xin is managing a team of researchers at the Future Forest Ecosystem Centre, a new centre created to forecast ecological disruptions and improve our response to climate change. “We’re at the foundational stage of this important work,” she explains. “By building climate data at the local level and increasing the resolution of data to understand how changes are impacting us on the ground and how much change has happened, we will be able to provide better guidance for B.C.’s ecosystem managers. Climate data is an essential precursor to accounting for climate risks in ecosystem management.”
She says that modeling and forecasting is essential for decision-making as we adapt to climate change and work to slow it down. “For example, we are now seeing some species unable to survive after being planted under the changing climate like drought. The goal of the Centre is to provide scientific guidance and tools like modeling to help local areas understand what species would work best to survive conditions in their area and survive future climate change.”
Xin also says that carbon modeling is a complex field of study. “It requires multiple sectors to collaborate and work towards the same goal. Our work at the Ministry focuses on developing consistent carbon calculation standard in forestry, and we also have a lot of work to do to calculate GHG emissions associated to different forestry activities. It’s complicated because ministry staff need to translate the emerging carbon research from academia into something that fits the operational needs. But it’s an exciting challenge.”
“Addressing climate change is the most important thing in forest management now. The right legislation and policies must be put in place, and we all must do our part. Climate data and modeling will provide a foundation and tools for addressing ecosystem challenges. It’s where we must start from.”
Xin knows what she’s talking about. She’s got the academic, research and field experience to understand the challenges and begin to address them.
She came to Canada to study in the master of science in forestry program at the University of New Brunswick after graduating with an undergraduate forestry degree in China. She had a passion for trees and ecology and was looking for the right graduate program to continue her studies. She found it at UNB, which has one of the oldest and leading graduate programs in forestry science and environmental management in the country.
“I loved UNB, although it was a culture shock and a challenging program, especially with the language barrier. I specialized in ecophysiology – the interaction between forest ecology and tree physiology. I did a research project with Dr. Savidge in the Yukon all summer studying white spruce trees, and we focused on how the species were impacted by micro-site climate changes along the timberline. It was a wonderful adventure – I received so much support from UNB and the people there. I was so fortunate.”
After graduating, Xin moved around in Canada to try to find work where she could influence public policy in forest management. That proved hard to come by, but she was determined to stick to her passion and found fieldwork in the industry. “When I worked for an ecology lab, I was up every day at 3am to be onsite before the birds woke up so my team could conduct our bird survey. I wanted to stay focused on gaining experience in the industry I’m passionate about.”
That experience landed her a job with the B.C. Ministry of Forests in the northern community of Dawson Creek as a stewardship forester. “We did a lot of field work to examine ground forestry practices and worked with industry on permitting, regulations, and protecting wildlife and waterways. We also worked with industries on land development and management.”
Xin’s next move was to Victoria with her husband, and it’s where they’ve settled and are raising a family. She continued with the B.C. Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development, and over the course of over three years she and her team brought forward Bill 23 - Forest Statutes Amendment Act to include more sustainable forest management that prioritizes forest health and moves forward on commitments to reconciliation. “I’m so proud that I was a part of that. Being on the ground in the district helped me understand and provide context for legislative changes.”
Now in her Forest Carbon and Climate Services role, Xin says that all her experiences add up to giving her the skillset and understanding she needs to do her job well and make a difference. “My time at UNB was integral to getting me to where I am now. I participated in the Graduate Student Association on campus which required me to participate in group discussion and debate, and I also had a required graduate seminar course where we had to make a presentation – I failed it twice! It forced me to learn to better communicate and negotiate and present – and those are all skills I use daily now. It’s very important to know how to do the work on the ground, how to do research, but also to communicate your findings and persuade people to make the right decisions. I learned that at UNB.”
Xin is smiling now. “My work makes me happy. It’s an overwhelming global challenge, but you have to begin somewhere, and it’s rewarding to do my part. It fulfills my heart.”