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How do migration patterns shape a province’s future? In New Brunswick, tracking who comes, who leaves and why reveals the social and economic forces driving change. Understanding these trends is key to planning housing, education and healthcare for tomorrow.

The New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) has released the fifth update in an ongoing series about Population and Demographics, detailing changes in New Brunswick from January 2020 to December 2023. Funded by the Department of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour, the series tracks demographic shifts and evaluates New Brunswick’s ability to attract and retain residents.

At the end of 2023, New Brunswick’s population was 838,255. The province has seen steady growth in recent years, driven by migration patterns and shifting economic factors. While first-time arrivals from other Canadian provinces dropped in 2023, there was a sharp increase in non-citizens arriving in the province.

Between 2020 and 2023, the number of work permit holders tripled, and the number of study permit holders grew tenfold, offsetting declines in Canadian citizen migration. However, out-migration is rising, particularly among study permit holders, whose exits more than doubled between 2022 and 2023.

Despite these trends, non-citizen arrivals still outpace departures and Canadian citizen in-migration remains above 2020 levels. New Brunswick’s affordability and access to resources continue to attract residents from higher-cost provinces.

Challenges such as strained housing markets and limited education and healthcare resources could affect migration as the population grows. However, New Brunswick’s resilience in maintaining population growth highlights its appeal as a destination for newcomers.

Addressing resource constraints will be vital in sustaining this positive trajectory—an issue not unique to New Brunswick but reflective of challenges faced by provinces across Canada.